STORMS

[gdavis316]

Pastor Gary,

 

we are leaving Albuquerque headed back to columbia sc....looks like we will miss the remnents of a pacific storm, but the way the one is curling back around in the atlantic......my left knee is hurting, so i think that one may be a problem for the east coast.  any long range discussion yet?

[PastorGary]

Our own TSRC tracking models have Edouard continuing in a generally southeasterly direction in roughly 30 hours.  There is an Atlantic high pressure area with its clockwise wind patterns getting close. However, timing is critical.   If the high gets past the rotational center of Edouard before it starts it's south track, Edouard will end up with dry air on three sides and this will prevent the storm from convecting and gaining strength again.  If the high's easterly movement slows and it picks up Edouard on it's southeastern quadrant, Edouard will be in a very friendly location to be pushed westward again into warm surface waters and higher humidities aloft. This still doesn't mean that it will have a US coastal involvement, because IF the bottom of the high pressure area does start moving Edouard westerly, the southwestern quadrant of the high will kick it back to the north after approximately 5 to 7 days and it will follow it's original track east of Bermuda.

 

That being said, there is another feature coming off the west coast of Senegal, west Africa, referred to as Invest 95-L.  One of the models from a European tracking agency is showing a potential critical timing merge between Edouard and this new 95-L.  IF that happens, all bets are off, because there are no current datapoints to calculate that event 8 to 11 days out.... just too many variables to get a reliable projection.

 

All I can say is to monitor NHC and our TSRC unofficial advisories starting the middle of next week. We will have a handle on it much better by then. My gut feeling is that Edouard will get picked up by the bottom of the high and get kicked back north after a week or so.  BUT, stay tuned...

[gdavis316]

Thank you for the info.  i will be monitoring.  

[PastorGary]

Saturday, 20 September Update:  The National Hurricane Center has stopped issuing advisories on the remnants of Named Storm Edouard. As I mentioned earlier, the Atlantic High might surround the storm on 3 sides with dry air. That is exactly what happened overnight. While there is still a small area of disturbed surface weather, it has no chance to redevelop in the next week.  Some of the residual moisture from the storm may get picked up by Invest 95-L as that disturbance moves westerly from the African coast.  We are monitoring 95-L but the environment that it will be passing through for the next several days is not good for development and the back side of the same Atlantic high pressure area that tore Edouard apart aloft will be moving 95-L northward in just a couple days toward Europe. We are seeing no other Tropical Origin concerns at this time..

[gdavis316]

well sir, looks like everything disappeared.  fall is here, so i will start preparing for snowstorms.

[PastorGary]

While some science exists to predict long range snowfall and temperature patterns with Jet Stream movements, in our area we rely on observing the winter coats of white tail deer and wolves. This autumn, the coats are coming in very thick and dark colored on both species. This is nature's way of protecting the deer and wolves from harsh low temperatures as well as providing a little warmth with sun energy being absorbed by the darker colored coats. This phenomena is very reliable and during the 2013-14 winter in the Upper Midwest, these observations in September were the precursor to an extremely cold winter and over 180 inches of total season snowfall.  We are anticipating more of the same this season.

 

Regardless of the junk science used by environmental activists, regional temperature trends come from the fact that we are still coming out of the last ice age some 16,000 years ago. Temperatures will warm slowly after an ice age and while the activists use short term records for their catastrophic warnings, the rest of us use long term geological and fossil records dating back roughly 3.5 million years. The earth has gone through these cooling and warming cycles many thousands of times and the current cycle is no exception. Regional variations will exist, but you will not hear about the cold areas on earth from activists - only reports from those locations that have small statistical upward changes. In the upper Midwest, for instance, our region had only one day this past summer with a temperature above 88 degrees. We own one 8000 BTU window air conditioner and did not install it at all this year because of the cool summer.

 

The Jet Stream pattern for the 2014 Hurricane Season thus far has been producing very high velocity upper level shear ( winds that tear thundertsorm tops apart ) so Tropical Systems can not survive long enough to get to Major Category Hurricanes very often, and those storms that do form are short lived because they are kicked to the north from their origins in the central Atlantic this time of the year and travel over cooler waters so their 'furnace' can not draw energy from the sea surface thermally.

 

We are getting to a point in the season where more activity in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico can be expected, however with upper level shear as it is, we are not expecting rapid development in general terms. There is always a chance that conditions in the upper levels will calm with high pressure and a low level storm may form as low pressure moves in. This year, those will be a bit rare... not impossible, but statistically a low probability as compared to a weak Jet Stream shear as we saw about a decade ago along with frequent high intensity Hurricanes..

 

TSRC is running computer modeling daily on all possibilities and will post in the Weather area if needed.