Sporadic E, "E skip or Es" is fairly rare at 144 MHz but several instances are documented every year in the ham community. There are rare instances where Es has reached up to 222 MHz. I am not aware of any openings in the 440 MHz range so I would consider this propagation mode unlikely on GMRS. Es happens primarily in summer (late May to mid August).
Tropospheric ducting or "tropo" is fairly common east of the Rockies, mostly in the summer through fall. Below is a current map of propagation links from automated data stations in the 144 MHz band, https://vhf.dxview.org/. These stations would be typical in power to GMRS, but at VHF. Paths in red may be usable at GMRS. Tropo commonly is usable above 440 MHz and even well into the GHz range with enhanced conditions. Tropo can cover a few hundred to 1000 miles plus and is documented at over 2500 miles.
Here is a tropo propagation prediction map that shows strong potential paths in many areas of the eastern US last Tuesday. It does show a gap between MI/LA but it is only a modeled prediction based on weather patterns and at a specific time (1200 UTC). A path could develop as the weather changed through the day. These Hepburn, https://dxinfocentre.com/tropo.html maps are used by hams and other listening enthusiasts to find long haul propagation.
Another way to find enhanced propagation is to listen to empty FM broadcast and NOAA weather channels in your area.