Certainly water in coax will absolutely mess up impedance, which appears in the SWR. I wouldn’t argue otherwise, but the water damage is usually permanent and requires that cable be shortened to remove the waterlogged area.. I just don’t know if freezing that water then somehow restores the impedance of the cable. If so, maybe freeze drying a cable would be a possibility to permanently remove the moisture. (Pure irresponsible speculation on my part!)
I agree SWR shouldn’t change like that and I think you’re smart to watch this and chart the SWR and temperature over time. I would be interested in knowing if the SWR dip associated with the antenna raises and lowers or moves side to side. You’d need to sweep it with an analyzer or VNA to see and I don’t know if you have one. I’m very interested in what you discover.
I’ve had ice build up on a wire antenna before. The SWR went through the roof. After the ice melted the SWR came back down slightly but I had to shorten the wire to move the dips back where I needed them.